AGP Executive Report

Ceuta-Morocco Tensions: Spain’s King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia visited Ceuta, a rare royal trip amid strained ties with Morocco and the aftermath of July’s mass migrant crossing, which left more than 100 people dead. Food Emergency: More than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia face severe hunger after repeated failed rainy seasons; a UN report also warns that people in northern Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Sudan risk famine. Poverty: Nigeria recorded the world’s largest recent rise in multidimensional poverty, with 17.9 million more people affected between 2021 and 2024. Energy Investment: Tanzania is nearing a $42 billion LNG deal led by Shell and Equinor, part of plans to expand power generation and position the country as an energy hub. Health: DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak has surpassed 9,000 confirmed cases and 4,381 deaths as preparations for a vaccine trial continue. Sport and Security: Rwanda signed a 10-year deal to bring Formula One back to Africa in the early 2030s; in Nigeria, troops killed six suspected Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters during an attack on a military base in Adamawa.

Environmental Emergency: Niger has declared an incident of “exceptional severity” after an oil-and-gas blowout at the Goumeri W8 well sent crude gushing into the eastern desert; the leak is only partially contained. Migration Tragedy: At least 139 people died and 84 are missing after a boat capsized off Djibouti, in one of the region’s deadliest recent migrant disasters. Health Alert: Kenya reported its first Ebola death as the epidemic in neighbouring DR Congo reached about 9,000 confirmed cases and 4,339 deaths. Poverty and Security: UN figures put Nigeria’s multidimensional poverty rate at 38.7%, with 17.9 million people falling into poverty in three years; separate attacks in the northwest killed 20 people travelling to a market. Regional Ties: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery extended its ₦2.15 trillion share offer to October 27, saying it wants more African investors to participate. Digital Integration: Senegal is hosting a West African meeting to set a common strategy for regional digital backbone infrastructure.

Djibouti Tragedy: At least 139 migrants, including children, died when an overcrowded boat capsized off Djibouti; 84 remain missing. Nigeria Security: Gunmen killed 24 people, including eight soldiers and a police officer, in attacks in Zamfara and Niger states. Separately, the military said airstrikes killed more than 40 ISWAP fighters in Borno. Ethiopia’s Fragile Peace: More than 92,000 former combatants have entered a reintegration programme, even as renewed clashes in Tigray raise fresh concerns. Regional Trade: Kwara’s governor urged Nigeria and Ghana to remove trade barriers, while Ecobank and China’s CIPS agreed to improve cross-border payment links. Girls’ Education: Former Nigerian education minister Oby Ezekwesili called for stronger foundational learning and enforcement of minimum marriage-age laws to help end child marriage. South Africa’s Grid: A private-investment plan to expand transmission lines has slipped to the second quarter of 2027, delaying a key effort to unlock new power generation.

Western Sahara: UN Secretary-General António Guterres says any settlement must preserve Sahrawi self-determination, calling for residents to accept or reject Morocco’s autonomy plan. Djibouti Tragedy: At least 139 migrants, including children, died and 84 remain missing after a boat carrying 305 people capsized en route to Yemen. The IOM called for safer migration routes. Girls’ Rights: Nigerian education advocate Oby Ezekwesili urged African governments to keep girls in school and enforce minimum marriage ages, as sub-Saharan Africa has the world’s highest child-marriage prevalence. Human Rights: Senegal’s crackdown on LGBT people is driving fear and deterring access to HIV care, Human Rights Watch says. In Ghana, advocates warn that a new top US anti-trafficking ranking must be matched by stronger child protection. Business: Hapag-Lloyd is opening offices in Namibia and Rwanda to serve customers across Southern and East Africa.

Djibouti Shipwreck: At least 139 migrants, including 15 children, died and 84 remain missing after a boat carrying 305 people capsized en route to Yemen. More than 80 people survived, all Ethiopian nationals. Kenya’s Refinery Debate: Presidential aspirant Patrick Osoi says he would block Aliko Dangote’s planned $16bn Lamu refinery in favour of local investors. The project also faces a land dispute and concerns over compensation and environmental impact. Fuel Crisis: Motorists in Malawi’s capital, Lilongwe, are waiting days for petrol, disrupting travel, schools and businesses. Ebola Alert: Kenya has reported its first Ebola death after an infected patient crossed borders undetected, raising concerns about regional preparedness. Anti-Trafficking: Ghana’s promotion to Tier 1 in the US trafficking report marks progress, but advocates are urging more funding for victim protection and support.

Ebola Alert: Kenya has reported its first Ebola death after an infected patient passed through three countries, exposing gaps in cross-border screening and raising concerns about wider spread. Trade and Small Business: Togo is training small firms to navigate AfCFTA rules of origin and trade in goods, aiming to help local producers reach continental markets. Nutrition: Nigeria’s state governors pledged a nationwide nutrition emergency and a funding mechanism to expand interventions across all 774 local government areas. Drug Trafficking: Four meth labs have been uncovered in Nigeria in six months, pointing to a worrying shift as parts of Africa move from transit routes to drug production. Regional Investment: Dangote’s refinery IPO is reaching East African investors, while calls for transparency in Kenya highlight the need to clarify the project’s costs, risks and public benefits.

Ebola Alert: Kenya has reported its first death from the Bundibugyo Ebola strain after an infected traveller passed through the DRC and Uganda undetected. Health workers are demanding a place on the response taskforce and reliable protective equipment as officials trace contacts. Sahel Displacement: The UN says displacement in the central Sahel has more than doubled since 2020, driven by violence, climate shocks and severe funding shortfalls. Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of crossing its border, raising fears of a wider conflict; reports say Ethiopian drones struck Eritrean forces, while Eritrea denies the invasion claim. Aid Cuts: A proposed EU budget would reduce funding for sub-Saharan Africa by about $9.75 billion, adding pressure on programmes across the continent. Ghana’s Global Ties: Accra plans to apply to join BRICS, saying membership could broaden its partnerships with major trading partners. Ghana was also upgraded to Tier 1 in the latest US human-trafficking report. Value Addition: Ethiopia has opened its first national precious-metals refinery, designed to process more than 600 tonnes a year and boost local refining, exports and skilled jobs.

Public Health: Kenya confirmed its first imported Bundibugyo virus case after a patient travelled from the DRC through Uganda. The patient died, prompting stepped-up contact tracing and border surveillance with WHO support. Sahel Diplomacy: Mali is weighing US and Russian overtures, seeking to use both relationships while navigating jihadist threats and competing interests in its mineral wealth. Human Trafficking: Ghana rose to Tier 1 in the US trafficking report after authorities prosecuted 212 suspected traffickers, secured 28 convictions and identified more than 2,300 victims. Horn of Africa: Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including reports of Eritrean troops entering Tigray, are raising fears of renewed conflict. Investment: JPMorgan plans to launch a merchant bank in Nigeria before the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval, while Germany pledged €15 million to support solar energy and small businesses in Benin.

Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of sending troops across its border and urged the UN to intervene, raising fears of renewed war. India’s foreign minister also met Ethiopian officials to discuss trade, security and technology ties. Regional Security: AFRICOM warns that Yemen’s Houthis may be seeking a foothold in Somalia alongside al-Shabaab, potentially threatening shipping in the Gulf of Aden and U.S. forces in East Africa. Deportation Rights: The U.S. says it is working to return an Egyptian man deported to Equatorial Guinea after a judge ruled his removal unlawful; rights groups say third-country deportations are putting migrants at risk across Africa. Economic Recovery: Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to $46 billion from below $1 billion at their lowest point, while inflation has eased, offering lessons for Kenya and other economies seeking investor confidence. Food and Climate: Despite insurgent control of parts of Lake Chad, fishers and traders keep food moving for communities across Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad. In Abuja, the AfriGEO symposium opened with a focus on Earth observation and climate resilience.

Horn of Africa Tensions: Reports that Eritrean troops have entered Tigray and were targeted by Ethiopian drones have raised fears of renewed war, as Addis Ababa demands foreign forces leave. Niger’s Security Crisis: A failed coup attempt, reportedly sparked by unrest among special forces, has exposed deep divisions in the military as jihadist threats persist. US Deportations: Human rights groups say deporting migrants to African countries they are not from violates international law, as the network draws growing scrutiny. Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: INEC says parties cannot field or replace candidates whose names were missing from their submitted registers when the deadline closed. Climate and Food Security: Kenya is preparing flood defences and exploring purchases of farmers’ unsold rice ahead of El Niño rains; forecasters also warn southern Africa faces heightened drought risk. Regional Opportunity: Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio and investor Tony Elumelu are urging West African businesses to turn regional integration into investment, industry and jobs. Refugee Livelihoods: UNHCR and ASKY airline have launched a three-year partnership to expand skills, employment and business opportunities for refugees in six West and Central African countries.

Horn of Africa: Reports of Eritrean troops crossing into Ethiopia’s Tigray region have raised fears of renewed conflict, as Ethiopian forces move against rebels and both governments trade accusations. West Africa: Guinea-Bissau’s December election is set to be delayed, with no new date announced, deepening uncertainty after last year’s coup. Health & Security: Kenya is tracing contacts and placing people in quarantine after its first confirmed Ebola case; in Nigeria, troops repelled an ISWAP assault on a Borno base, with reports of soldiers and more than 25 militants killed. Business & Energy: Dangote’s $1.6 billion refinery IPO is opening to East African investors, while Nigeria’s government has outlined measures to ease rising petrol prices. Sport: Rwanda is reported to have secured an F1 Grand Prix, potentially bringing the championship back to Africa after decades, though a formal announcement is pending. Environment: WWF says monitored wildlife populations have fallen sharply since 1970, while warning that conservation efforts offer grounds for hope.

Ebola Alert: Kenya is tracing contacts and tightening health checks after a traveller from the DRC died of Ebola in Nairobi, raising concern about further cross-border spread. Officials say the case is isolated. Nigeria Security: The army says it repelled an ISWAP assault on a Borno base, killing more than 25 militants; soldiers also died in the fighting. Economic Outlook: The World Bank sees sub-Saharan Africa’s growth rising to 4.3% in 2026, but warns that Middle East conflict could push up fuel costs and strain economies such as Kenya’s. Regional Investment: Dangote Refinery has opened nearly $300 million of its IPO to East African investors, with Kenya and Uganda approving participation. Wildlife: WWF reports monitored populations in Africa fell 80% between 1970 and 2022, even as conservation successes show recovery is possible. South Africa Tensions: The US consulate warned staff to avoid Durban’s CBD after looting and violence targeting foreign nationals.

Ebola Alert: Kenya has confirmed its first Ebola case, and the patient, who returned from the DRC, has died. Authorities are increasing airport screening amid concerns about cross-border spread and trade. Regional Security: Reports of Eritrean troops moving south in Tigray and fresh fighting near Mekelle have raised fears of a wider confrontation. In Nigeria’s Borno State, troops say they killed more than 25 ISWAP fighters while repelling an attack; soldiers were also killed. West African Cooperation: ECOWAS is meeting in Banjul to strengthen border management, while a training programme in Monrovia aims to improve regional statistics and policymaking. Trade and Energy: Benin’s Cotonou port says container pickups take 36–72 hours, offering an alternative to congested West African hubs. A planned Zambia–DRC power line could supply up to 550MW to the DRC’s mining belt. African Enterprise: Nigeria’s HubPharm Africa won ECOWAS’s startup prize; the programme drew about 9,000 entries and offers finalists access to investment opportunities.

Libya Politics: Libya’s eastern House of Representatives has elected a new speaker, ending Aguila Saleh’s 12-year tenure as lawmakers cite leadership errors and growing discontent. South Sudan Borders: A Juba commissioner denied ordering Kenyans and other foreigners to leave within seven days, saying foreigners are welcome if they avoid retail trading. Counterterror Court Case: In Nigeria, a woman pleaded guilty to supporting ISWAP by helping keep arms and ammunition, with the case heard in Abuja. ECOWAS Integration: Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye urged ECOWAS Parliament to stay central to citizen-focused integration, not just government-led talks. Elections Funding: Nigerian civil groups backed INEC’s demand for the prompt release of remaining 2027 election funds to protect credibility. Trade & Ports: DP World secured a 10-year extension for Luanda’s port terminal to 2051, with a $90m expansion plan. Health: MSF warns DRC’s Ebola outbreak is still far from over as mistrust and weak systems slow containment. Climate & Shipping: Maersk cautioned Super El Niño-linked flooding could disrupt East Africa port access and inland routes. Education & Social Security: An ISSA seminar in Doha focused on digital and management innovations to improve social security access and delivery.

Ebola in East Africa: Kenya has confirmed its first-ever Ebola death after a Kenyan man who had been living in DR Congo died in Nairobi, triggering contact tracing and isolation of dozens of contacts and passengers. Regional Justice: ECOWAS Court of Justice swore in five new judges, as the regional legal system pushes on with rights and integration cases. Energy & Investment: Orb Energy secured $2m from KawiSafi Ventures to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa, while Algeria’s APPO president highlighted Algerian hydrocarbons expertise as a bridge for African energy cooperation. Public Health & Safety: A UN report warns that medicine trafficking in Central Africa is a major public health threat, with hundreds of tonnes seized across CEMAC states from 2020-2025. Digital Finance: Airtel Money plans a virtual card in Kenya to enable international online payments from mobile wallets, aiming to challenge M-Pesa GlobalPay. Governance & Economy: Malawi’s central bank urged stronger regional rules for non-bank finance to protect savers and unlock growth.

Aviation & Trade: Saudia’s low-cost arm flyadeal launches non-stop Riyadh–Mumbai service, adding 7,400 seats monthly and betting big on India’s travel boom. Education: Ekiti State in Nigeria rewards top teachers and administrators with N70.5m in cash prizes for Teacher’s Day. Capital Markets: Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority clears a short-form prospectus letting eligible investors buy Dangote refinery IPO exposure via GDRs on the Nairobi bourse. Security: Nigeria’s security forces say they killed a senior ISWAP leader in Ondo during a joint operation involving DSS, the army and Amotekun. Energy & Investment: TotalEnergies outlines major Africa bets across Mozambique LNG, Namibia’s Orange Basin and Uganda’s oil push, stressing local jobs and skills. Health & Rights: Human Rights Watch warns Tunisia’s power and water shortages during extreme heat violated rights to health, hitting hospitals and detainees. Agriculture & Climate: South Africa faces rising food risk as El Niño-linked drought pressure meets new threats, while ransomware fears grow as farming digitises. Politics: Ethiopia formally installs Abiy Ahmed for a new term after parliamentary approval.